While the pandemic still rages, there increasingly is hope for society to move forward again. Vaccines are slowly being rolled out and there is light at the end of the tunnel. While many individuals think that with the vaccine rollout everything will return to normal, the reality is that there is no returning to “normal”.
Whether consciously or unconsciously, many individuals are expecting to return to their lives pre-pandemic like nothing ever happened. The reality is that was never possible. What we all have to prepare ourselves for is an across the board paradigm shift that is coming over the next few years. From society to politics to business, everyone globally has to prepare for these changes.
The pandemic has accelerated a number of changes that were already under way including:
- Human-Centric versus Technology-Centric: The pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation that was already under way. Businesses are continuing to review processes for cost efficiencies and increasingly they will be reviewing those same processes for automation potential as well. As such, processes will fall into two categories. One that requires human ingenuity and skill and the other that can be fully automated.
- Increasing Resilience & Diversity: Governments, businesses and individuals are increasingly reviewing their processes, investments and assumptions to ensure that they can deal with unknown “black swans” in the future. Whether that means diversifying vendors, processes and supply chains or forging new relationships means that there will continue to be uncertainty as we exit the pandemic.
- Increasing Gini Coefficient: It is increasingly apparent that the recovery will be K-shaped. In other words, there will be a portion of the population that will come out reasonably well post-pandemic while others will not be so lucky. This K-shaped recovery will further compound the challenges involved in ensuring everyone has an opportunity to participate in the recovery.
With these changes occurring, it is no wonder that there is no returning to “normal”. If we all understand that there is no returning to normal then what can we do to ensure everyone can participate in the new normal? In other words, how can we ensure that we have a holistic recovery?
As with everything, there are no simple solutions. It is the reality of the world that we live in. However, it doesn’t mean that we can’t think through ways to ensure a holistic approach.
Indeed, while we do not know the exact definition of what is to come, we can build a framework that helps guide everyone towards a holistic recovery. What does that framework look like? There are some guiding framework elements including:
- A Need For An Accelerated Reset For Everyone: It is increasingly apparent that relying on the existing processes and the pace at which they move will not be sufficient to recover from the pandemic. Not only do those processes move too slowly, they will be overwhelmed by the sheer volume. Whether it is dealing with bankruptcies, starting new businesses or the normal realities of life, failing to acknowledge that existing processes will be overwhelmed is not only a recipe for disaster but a recipe for further disruption.
Indeed, rethinking how we reset will be just as critical as accelerating its pace. The pandemic has ravaged once thriving individuals and businesses through no fault of their own. By not acknowledging that key point, we set society up for further disruption. - New Foundational Requirements: While it has been occurring for a while now, there is an increasing acknowledgement that new skills are needed by individuals to merely get past the starting gate. Perseverance, luck and a university degree are no longer enough for individuals to graduate from gig economy roles to more stable roles.
It is increasingly apparent that other foundational skills are needed. From technical skills such as machine learning and statistical analysis to non-technical skills such as critical thinking and multicultural communications, the requirements for individuals to succeed in today’s economic and social environment are greater than ever. - A Realization of Further Professional & Personal Disruption: While we all individually yearn for a semblance of normalcy, the reality is that we must all prepare for further disruption in both our professional and personal lives. Some of the changes will be good while others will not and other changes will be a hybrid mix depending on individual circumstances.
An example of this is the rise of remote work which will provide more opportunities for many to participate in the new knowledge economy. Unfortunately, for others, it means a forced relocation as opportunities in larger urban areas disappear.
- Traditional Institutions Will Be Disrupted & New Ones Will Rise: Another aspect of change that has been occurring for quite some time is the decline of traditional institutions and the rise of new ones. Driven by technology, new business and social models, the pandemic has accelerated the decline of traditional institutions.
Individuals and organizations are finding that traditional institutions that refuse to adapt are incapable of adequately addressing the social, political and economic needs. As such, they are bringing about change either by establishing new institutions built on new shared values or are demanding accelerated change concerning existing ones. - Not About Rules & Regulations But Accountability & Transparency: With the growing social, political and economic disruption that is occurring, many have stated that there is a need for more rules and regulations. Unfortunately, that approach is more likely to exacerbate tensions and is more likely to create further disruptions than reduce it.
The reality is that additional rules and regulations merely create bureaucracy, reduces innovation, does not address root causes and does not address “black swan” scenarios. Indeed, the call for more rules and regulations is a desire for greater accountability and frameworks, particularly after a great disruption such as the pandemic.
One could argue that what is needed are not more rules and regulations but frameworks based on shared values. Building a framework that encompasses the majority and acknowledges the diversity and differences that are abound to appear ensures that a greater number of individuals move forward than do not. - Managing The Growth of Decentralization & Centralization: Another one of today’s greatest challenges managing the growth of both decentralization and centralization in all aspects of society. While artificial intelligence and machine learning seem to be pulling society towards an era of centralization other elements seem to be pulling it towards decentralization.
From the rise of distributed networks and technologies such as blockchain to influence of social media and its ability to create global “tribal communities”, there are just as many elements that are decentralizing society. How we manage both of these disparate and polar opposite elements will be an interesting one for society to tackle in the coming years. - Society Will Need To Acknowledge We Cannot Operate At One Speed: For centuries, the desire to move faster has been one that has consumed society. Whether it is faster communications, faster productivity or faster travel, humans have always believed that we can do things faster and better. While there is no doubt that we can continue to find ways to do things faster and more efficiently, there is an increasing acknowledgement that society is living in a multi-speed world.
Indeed, the desire for speed has been a human-centric one where individuals, organizations and nations would compete against one another to see who could move more quickly and efficiently. However, today’s speed race is no longer only between humans but technology is involved as well.
Increasingly, as technology and automation continue to integrate into all aspects of society, individuals and organizations consciously and subconsciously are starting to demand human-centered processes respond at technology-centric pace. For all the process re-engineering and design that can be done to further optimize processes, the reality is that there is no conceivable way for human-centric processes to match the speed and accuracy of predominantly technology-driven ones.
While the folktale of John Henry versus the Steam Drill would give humanity hope that it can compete against technology, the costs of such a victory as well as the continual improvements occurring with technology make it a futile effort.
As we design new institutions and processes in this post-pandemic paradigm shift, we must acknowledge that we need to design systems, processes and institutions that are multi-speed. We should not be expecting technology-driven speed from human-centric processes and as such should ensure we clearly design and define what reasonable expectations are from human-centric processes versus technology-driven ones.
The next two to five years will be interesting ones for humanity on a global scale. It will be full of contradicting elements. Dynamism and traditionalism. Chaos and order. Optimism and pessimism. Hope and despair. How these elements play out will be up to us individually and organizationally. As such, I hope we all take the effort to play our part to ensure that we have a holistic recovery that is not only beneficial for ourselves individuals but for the greater good of society.
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